After facing allegations of conspiring to undermine the 2020 elections in Georgia and accusations of absenteeism from the initial GOP primaries, Donald Trump, following his release after the Magshot incident, has been steadily improving his standing in a series of surveys conducted since in Fulton County against his Republican opponents.
Recent surveys for the Trump campaign and morning consult have yielded commanding advantages for the former U.S. President, allowing him to pull ahead of his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, in the overall race, neck and neck, and gain favorable ratings.”
These results signify an ongoing trend for Trump, who has seen an increase in voter turnout and fundraising with each allegation this year – be it in the secret money case in New York, the organized document case in Florida, or the federal 2020 election tampering case in Washington.
This also suggests that some of DeSantis’ major campaign arguments – that he is more electable than Trump – have failed to resonate among potential Republican voters, even though he had an opportunity to establish himself on the debate stage with Trump absent last week.
In the days following Trump’s release from Fulton County Jail, the Trump campaign’s polling reveals that his exoneration has mitigated his legal risks and hasn’t weakened his standing among likely Republican primary voters.”
Overall, in surveys conducted by Coefficient among nearly 2,700 potential Republican primary voters, Trump received 58% of the vote, while DeSantis garnered 13%, resulting in a three-point improvement in his lead since the beginning of the month. No other candidate reached 10%.
The Trump campaign’s polling aligned with the Morning Consult poll, which found that Trump’s lead remained unchanged in the immediate aftermath of his Magshot release and the first Republican primary debate, with Trump at 58%, DeSantis at 14%, and no other candidate breaking 10%.
The survey revealed that while all other candidates fell behind Trump in a unified opposition, in a hypothetical head-to-head race against former President DeSantis, Trump would win by a substantial margin, with a 62% to 23% difference.
Specifically, in the days following Trump’s exoneration in Fulton County, the portion of voters who believed Trump was guilty of the allegations decreased by 11%, while those who perceived Trump as being wrongly accused under efforts to prevent him from running in the elections remained constant at 74%.”
The survey has arrived less than six months before the first primary competition of 2024, and the political landscape for Trump can still change as he spends more time in courtrooms across the country and away from the campaign trail.
On Monday, the federal judge presiding over Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election set a March 4, 2024, start date, a day ahead of Super Tuesday when 15 states have scheduled Republican primaries or caucuses.
Both Trump and DeSantis are viewed favorably among likely Republican primary voters, with 75% to 62% respectively. Although DeSantis only received a 19% “very favorable” rating, there is a noticeable intensity of support for Trump, with 54% of respondents expressing a “very favorable” impression of the former President.